Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. This is the real war. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. A sad state of affairs. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. Historical Statistics. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). [6] Paul Monk. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. Just $5 a month. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. War is inevitable. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. By Alan Dupont. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. !! In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Sydney: Murdoch Press. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Or so it seems. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Everyone is doing it hard at present. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. There ya go. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. 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